Referral funnel by JTBD segment: anchor 29.6% vs Digital Newcomers 45+ 4.8% and families 8.6%. The gap opens at accept, not KYC.
Volta — Referral Segments
Situation
Referral is the best funnel channel. We test whether it scales beyond the anchor.
Task
Since referral is the strongest channel in the funnel, my job was to find out whether it holds up outside the anchor segment.
Actions
- Referral funnel (sent→accepted→KYC→first-tx) by JTBD segment.
- Chi² segment × status, two-proportion z-test anchor vs gap.
- Channel effect within gap segments.
Result
- Anchor 29.6% vs 45+ 4.8% and families 8.6% (chi² p<0.001, z=43.3).
- The gap opens at accept (78% vs 26% vs 40%), not at KYC.
- In-app 20.6% vs link 14.3% overall, but within the gap still far below the anchor.
Recommendations
- Don’t scale the referral budget blindly.
- Segment incentives first (assisted for 45+, cashback for families), then expand referral.
- Rework the referral value prop for gap segments.
Documentation
Charts
Source: github.com/NikitaBoyarkin/volta-banking — 22 projects; figures recomputed from the repo's own datasets (data/*.csv) via its analysis scripts. Funnel counts from data/volta_funnel_data.csv (10,000 users); A/B, retention, segmentation, churn, RFM, CLV, attribution, anomalies, spend, support, NPS, JTBD, unit economics, premium, KYC deep-dive, referral, assisted CAC, FX sourcing, premium offers, anchor CAC and dormant win-back follow the published project narrative (README + part pages).
Referral conversion by segment
End-to-end referral conversion (sent→accepted→KYC→first-tx, %) and invite-acceptance rate by JTBD segment. The gap opens at the accept step.
Key takeaways - Anchor 29.6% vs Digital Newcomers 45+ 4.8% and Family Budgeters 8.6% — chi² p<0.001, z anchor vs gap = 43.3.
- The gap opens at accept (78% vs 26% vs 40%), not at KYC — the 'refer a friend' value prop does not land outside the anchor.